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NEW WELSH CONSTITUENCY LINE-UP
Boundary changes affect 22 of the 40 first-past-the-post Welsh Assembly constituencies.
Two of the five proportional representation top-up ones have significant alterations.
A survey by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University for PA,
BBC, ITN and Sky News estimates how seats would have divided if the alterations had been
in force at the 2003 election.
The overall calculated result is that Plaid Cymru would have won Aberconwy instead of
Labour which has the present Conwy.
The knock-on effect of this is that Plaid would be entitled to one less top-up seat in Wales
North and Tories to one extra, making a net gain of one for Conservatives from Labour.
All the 2003 results - for both boundary change and non boundary change constituencies -
are listed below.
The boundary change ones are identified by the index of change figure in the second line
and the word notional after 2003.
There are no boundary changes for the Scottish Parliament election.
1 ABERAVON
2003: Lab maj 7,813 (41.66%) - Turnout 18,755 (37.35%)
Gibbons (Lab) 11,137 (59.38%); Owen (PC) 3,324 (17.72%); Waller (LD)
1,840 (9.81%); Boult (C) 1,732 (9.23%); Williams (Soc Alt) 608
(3.24%); Nererid Saunders (Annibynnol) 114 (0.61%)
2 ABERCONWY
45.40% boundary change
2003 notional: PC maj 313 (1.90%) - Turnout 16,488 (37.49%)
PC 4,894 (29.68%); Lab 4,581 (27.78%); C 4,487 (27.21%); LD 2,526
(15.32%)
3 ALYN & DEESIDE
2003: Lab maj 3,503 (23.25%) - Turnout 15,064 (24.89%)
Sergeant (Lab) 7,036 (46.71%); Wright (C) 3,533 (23.45%); Brighton
(LD) 2,509 (16.66%); Coombs (PC) 1,160 (7.70%); Crawford (UKIP) 826
(5.48%)
4 ARFON
85.15% boundary change
2003 notional: PC maj 3,635 (18.77%) - Turnout 19,368 (45.04%)
PC 9,557 (49.34%); Lab 5,922 (30.58%); C 2,510 (12.96%); LD 1,379
(7.12%)
5 BLAENAU GWENT
2003: Lab Co-op maj 11,736 (59.36%) - Turnout 19,771 (37.36%)
Law (Lab Co-op) 13,884 (70.22%); Bard (LD) 2,148 (10.86%); Elis (PC)
1,889 (9.55%); O'Keefe (C) 1,131 (5.72%); Thomas (UKIP) 719 (3.64%)
2006: Ind Law maj 4,464 (16.30%) - Turnout 27,387 (52.08%)
Law (Ind Law) 13,785 (50.33%); Hopkins (Lab) 9,321 (34.03%); Bard
(LD) 2,054 (7.50%); Price (PC) 1,109 (4.05%); Burns (C) 816 (2.98%);
Matthews (Green) 302 (1.10%)
6 BRECON & RADNORSHIRE
2003: LD maj 5,308 (19.77%) - Turnout 26,843 (49.95%)
Williams (LD) 13,325 (49.64%); Bourne (C) 8,017 (29.87%); Rees (Lab)
3,130 (11.66%); Parri (PC) 1,329 (4.95%); Phillips (UKIP) 1,042
(3.88%)
7 BRIDGEND
9.01% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 2,347 (11.82%) - Turnout 19,855 (34.81%)
Lab 8,453 (42.57%); C 6,106 (30.75%); LD 2,816 (14.18%); PC 1,803
(9.08%); UKIP 677 (3.41%)
8 CAERPHILLY
6.64% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 4,114 (17.34%) - Turnout 23,731 (37.01%)
Lab 10,763 (45.35%); PC 6,649 (28.02%); C 2,399 (10.11%); Others
2,134 (8.99%); LD 1,196 (5.04%); UKIP 590 (2.49%)
9 CARDIFF CENTRAL
2003: LD maj 7,156 (34.74%) - Turnout 20,598 (32.97%)
Randerson (LD) 11,256 (54.65%); Mungham (Lab) 4,100 (19.90%); Piper
(C) 2,378 (11.54%); Thomas (PC) 1,795 (8.71%); Gul Raiz (Soc All) 541
(2.63%); Beany (Bean) 289 (1.40%); Jeremy (ProLife) 239 (1.16%)
10 CARDIFF NORTH
2003: Lab maj 540 (1.95%) - Turnout 27,734 (42.98%)
Essex (Lab) 10,413 (37.55%); Morgan (C) 9,873 (35.60%); Dickson (LD)
3,474 (12.53%); Jones (PC) 2,679 (9.66%); Hulston (UKIP) 1,295 (4.67%)
11 CARDIFF SOUTH & PENARTH
5.09% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 4,042 (18.74%) - Turnout 21,569 (31.79%)
Lab 9,579 (44.41%); C 5,537 (25.67%); LD 3,252 (15.08%); PC 2,616
(12.13%); Others 585 (2.71%)
12 CARDIFF WEST
8.32% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 7,067 (31.29%) - Turnout 22,586 (34.97%)
Lab 11,079 (49.05%); C 4,012 (17.76%); PC 3,504 (15.51%); LD 3,062
(13.56%); UKIP 929 (4.11%)
13 CARMARTHEN EAST & DINEFWR
2.49% boundary change
2003 notional: PC maj 4,499 (17.24%) - Turnout 26,100 (49.49%)
PC 12,646 (48.45%); Lab 8,147 (31.21%); C 3,487 (13.36%); LD 1,820
(6.97%)
14 CARMARTHEN WEST & PEMBROKESHIRE SOUTH
3.44% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 395 (1.62%) - Turnout 24,392 (42.69%)
Lab 8,504 (34.86%); PC 8,109 (33.24%); C 4,954 (20.31%); LD 2,245
(9.20%); Others 580 (2.38%)
15 CEREDIGION
0.65% boundary change
2003 notional: PC maj 4,588 (17.54%) - Turnout 26,154 (49.80%)
PC 11,806 (45.14%); LD 7,218 (27.60%); Lab 3,286 (12.56%); C 2,904
(11.10%); UKIP 940 (3.59%)
16 CLWYD SOUTH
4.94% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 2,792 (15.61%) - Turnout 17,881 (34.92%)
Lab 6,521 (36.47%); PC 3,729 (20.85%); C 3,336 (18.66%); Others 2,210
(12.36%); LD 1,584 (8.86%); UKIP 501 (2.80%)
17 CLWYD WEST
3.35% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 485 (2.17%) - Turnout 22,304 (40.27%)
Lab 7,768 (34.83%); C 7,283 (32.65%); PC 4,772 (21.40%); LD 1,766
(7.92%); UKIP 715 (3.21%)
18 CYNON VALLEY
8.68% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 7,743 (43.13%) - Turnout 17,954 (37.19%)
Lab 11,573 (64.46%); PC 3,830 (21.33%); LD 1,367 (7.61%); C 1,184
(6.59%)
19 DELYN
2003: Lab maj 1,624 (9.62%) - Turnout 16,884 (31.02%)
Mewies (Lab) 6,520 (38.62%); Isherwood (C) 4,896 (29.00%); Lloyd (LD)
2,880 (17.06%); Rowlinson (PC) 2,588 (15.33%)
20 DWYFOR MEIRIONNYDD
86.12% boundary change
2003 notional: PC maj 7,710 (35.86%) - Turnout 21,503 (44.04%)
PC 12,335 (57.36%); Lab 4,625 (21.51%); C 3,042 (14.15%); LD 1,501
(6.98%)
21 GOWER
0.02% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 5,688 (24.00%) - Turnout 23,701 (39.16%)
Lab 10,334 (43.60%); C 4,646 (19.60%); PC 3,502 (14.78%); LD 2,775
(11.71%); UKIP 2,444 (10.31%)
22 ISLWYN
8.82% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 8,180 (36.94%) - Turnout 22,145 (39.39%)
Lab 12,376 (55.89%); PC 4,196 (18.95%); Others 2,201 (9.94%); C 2,019
(9.12%); LD 1,353 (6.11%)
23 LLANELLI
2003: Lab maj 21 (0.09%) - Turnout 23,167 (40.34%)
Bailey Thomas (Lab) 9,916 (42.80%); Jones (PC) 9,895 (42.71%); Jones
(C) 1,712 (7.39%); Rees (LD) 1,644 (7.10%)
24 MERTHYR TYDFIL & RHYMNEY
2003: Lab Co-op maj 8,160 (44.29%) - Turnout 18,422 (33.03%)
Lewis (Lab Co-op) 11,148 (60.51%); Cox (PC) 2,988 (16.22%); Prosser
(C) 1,539 (8.35%); Greer (Ind) 1,423 (7.72%); Ault (LD) 1,324 (7.19%)
25 MONMOUTH
2003: C maj 8,510 (30.62%) - Turnout 27,796 (44.51%)
Davies (C) 15,989 (57.52%); James (Lab) 7,479 (26.91%); Willott (LD)
2,973 (10.70%); Thomas (PC) 1,355 (4.87%)
26 MONTGOMERYSHIRE
2.78% boundary change
2003 notional: LD maj 2,233 (11.22%) - Turnout 19,894 (42.64%)
LD 7,911 (39.77%); C 5,678 (28.54%); Lab 2,196 (11.04%); PC 2,017
(10.14%); UKIP 1,107 (5.56%); Others 985 (4.95%)
27 NEATH
0.02% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 4,946 (22.29%) - Turnout 22,187 (39.09%)
Lab 11,332 (51.07%); PC 6,386 (28.78%); LD 2,048 (9.23%); C 2,011
(9.06%); Others 410 (1.85%)
28 NEWPORT EAST
2003: Lab Co-op maj 3,464 (20.27%) - Turnout 17,088 (30.21%)
Griffiths (Lab Co-op) 7,621 (44.60%); Evans (C) 4,157 (24.33%);
Townsend (LD) 2,768 (16.20%); Asghar (PC) 1,555 (9.10%); Reynolds
(UKIP) 987 (5.78%)
29 NEWPORT WEST
2003: Lab maj 3,752 (17.51%) - Turnout 21,426 (34.99%)
Butler (Lab) 10,053 (46.92%); Graham (C) 6,301 (29.41%); Hobson (LD)
2,094 (9.77%); Salkeld (PC) 1,678 (7.83%); Moelwyn Hughes (UKIP)
1,102 (5.14%); Morse (WSAAW) 198 (0.92%)
30 OGMORE
5.54% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 7,129 (40.00%) - Turnout 17,822 (33.10%)
Lab 10,595 (59.45%); PC 3,466 (19.45%); C 1,742 (9.77%); LD 1,609
(9.03%); Others 410 (2.30%)
31 PONTYPRIDD
14.01% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 6,276 (29.55%) - Turnout 21,236 (39.24%)
Lab 10,815 (50.93%); PC 4,539 (21.37%); LD 3,048 (14.35%); C 1,809
(8.52%); UKIP 1,025 (4.83%)
32 PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE
1.70% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 1,365 (5.87%) - Turnout 23,245 (41.51%)
Lab 8,177 (35.18%); C 6,812 (29.31%); PC 5,387 (23.17%); LD 2,869
(12.34%)
33 RHONDDA
2003: Lab maj 7,954 (34.58%) - Turnout 23,003 (45.58%)
Andrews (Lab) 14,170 (61.60%); Davies (PC) 6,216 (27.02%); Gregory
(Ind) 909 (3.95%); Watkins (LD) 680 (2.96%); Rajan (UKIP) 524
(2.28%); Williams (C) 504 (2.19%)
34 SWANSEA EAST
2003: Lab maj 3,997 (22.96%) - Turnout 17,410 (30.41%)
Lloyd (Lab) 8,221 (47.22%); Black (LD) 4,224 (24.26%); Evans (PC)
2,223 (12.77%); Robinson (UKIP) 1,474 (8.47%); Morris (C) 1,135
(6.52%); Thomson (Soc All) 133 (0.76%)
35 SWANSEA WEST
2003: Lab maj 2,562 (13.20%) - Turnout 19,412 (33.04%)
Davies (Lab) 7,023 (36.18%); Lloyd (PC) 4,461 (22.98%); Day (LD)
3,510 (18.08%); Rowbottom (C) 3,106 (16.00%); Evans (UKIP) 1,040
(5.36%); Richards (Soc All) 272 (1.40%)
36 TORFAEN
2003: Lab maj 6,964 (35.61%) - Turnout 19,555 (31.92%)
Neagle (Lab) 10,152 (51.92%); Ramsay (C) 3,188 (16.30%); German (LD)
2,746 (14.04%); Preece (PC) 2,092 (10.70%); Rowlands (UKIP) 1,377
(7.04%)
37 VALE OF CLWYD
1.07% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 2,750 (15.21%) - Turnout 18,085 (36.43%)
Lab 8,317 (45.99%); C 5,567 (30.78%); PC 2,554 (14.12%); LD 1,647
(9.11%)
38 VALE OF GLAMORGAN
8.89% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 2,288 (8.28%) - Turnout 27,622 (40.48%)
Lab 11,979 (43.37%); C 9,691 (35.08%); PC 3,879 (14.04%); LD 2,073
(7.50%)
39 WREXHAM
2003: Marek maj 973 (5.60%) - Turnout 17,363 (34.38%)
Marek (Marek) 6,539 (37.66%); Griffiths (Lab) 5,566 (32.06%);
Finch-Saunders (C) 2,228 (12.83%); Ripperth (LD) 1,701 (9.80%); Ryder
(PC) 1,329 (7.65%)
40 YNYS MON
2003: PC maj 2,255 (8.94%) - Turnout 25,243 (50.43%)
Wyn Jones (PC) 9,452 (37.44%); Rogers (C) 7,197 (28.51%); Jones (Lab)
6,024 (23.86%); Bennett (LD) 2,089 (8.28%); Wykes (UKIP) 481 (1.91%)
101 SOUTH WALES CENTRAL
(Cardiff Central; Cardiff North; Cardiff South & Penarth; Cardiff
West; Cynon Valley; Pontypridd; Rhondda; Vale of Glamorgan)
2003: Lab maj 40,965 (22.63%) - Turnout 181,047 (37.71%)
Lab 74,369 (41.08%); C 33,404 (18.45%); PC 27,956 (15.44%); LD 24,926
(13.77%); UKIP 6,920 (3.82%); Green 6,047 (3.34%); Soc Lab 3,217
(1.78%); Bean 1,027 (0.57%); Ind Wales 1,018 (0.56%); Stop War 1,013
(0.56%); Comm 577 (0.32%); ProLife 573 (0.32%). Elected: Morgan (C),
Melding (C), Wood (PC), Thomas (PC)
102 SOUTH WALES EAST
(Blaenau Gwent; Caerphilly; Islwyn; Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney;
Monmouth; Newport East; Newport West; Torfaen)
2003: Lab maj 42,291 (24.92%) - Turnout 169,731 (36.15%)
Lab 76,522 (45.08%); C 34,231 (20.17%); PC 21,384 (12.60%); LD 17,661
(10.41%); UKIP 5,949 (3.50%); Green 5,291 (3.12%); Soc Lab 3,695
(2.18%); BNP 3,210 (1.89%); Ind Wales 1,226 (0.72%); ProLife 562
(0.33%). Elected: Graham (C), Jones (C), German (LD), Davies (PC)
103 SOUTH WALES WEST
(Aberavon; Bridgend; Gower; Neath; Ogmore; Swansea East; Swansea West)
2003: Lab maj 33,267 (23.84%) - Turnout 139,548 (35.28%)
Lab 58,066 (41.61%); PC 24,799 (17.77%); C 20,981 (15.03%); LD 17,746
(12.72%); Green 6,696 (4.80%); UKIP 6,113 (4.38%); Soc Lab 3,446
(2.47%); Ind Wales 1,346 (0.96%); ProLife 355 (0.25%). Elected:
Cairns (C), Black (LD), Davies (PC), Lloyd (PC)
104 WALES MID & WEST
(Brecon & Radnorshire; Carmarthen East & Dinefwr; Carmarthen West &
Pembrokeshire South; Ceredigion; Dwyfor Meirionnydd; Llanelli;
Montgomeryshire; Preseli Pembrokeshire)
7.45% boundary change
2003 notional: PC maj 8,685 (4.53%) - Turnout 191,903 (44.62%)
PC 56,449 (29.42%); Lab 47,764 (24.89%); C 36,375 (18.95%); LD 30,534
(15.91%); Green 7,918 (4.13%); Others 6,742 (3.51%); UKIP 6,121
(3.19%). Elected: PC 1, C 3
105 WALES NORTH
(Aberconwy; Alyn & Deeside; Clwyd South; Clwyd West; Delyn; Vale of
Clwyd; Wrexham; Ynys Mon)
6.40% boundary change
2003 notional: Lab maj 16,203 (9.68%) - Turnout 167,323 (36.48%)
Lab 53,937 (32.24%); C 37,734 (22.55%); PC 37,065 (22.15%); LD 17,146
(10.25%); Others 13,041 (7.79%); UKIP 4,324 (2.58%); Green 4,076
(2.44%). Elected: C 3, LD 1
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